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Saturday, August 27, 2005

Diary of a Madman: Draft #1


I’ve been playing fantasy football since 1991 in a total of 5 different leagues throughout with 6 championships (a repeat in one league). Fortunately, during that time, I’ve played in no more that 3 leagues at a time. Even more fortunate is that I’ve only played in 2 for the past 5 years. I say fortunate because it is a lot of work to run a fantasy football team, let alone multiple ones.

As you would expect, the most important part of running a team is draft day. Hopefully, my experience over the last 14 years will be helpful to yours in some way. In this article, I am going to layout my draft strategy beforehand and then follow up with the results– hopefully no one in my league will read it prior. This year, I am back in three leagues again, so the next two weeks are going to be crazy.

Draft #1 is on Saturday, August 27th. The following offensive rules apply:

4 pts per passing TD

6 pts per rushing/receiving TD

1 point per 10yds rushing/receiving

1 point per 20 yds passing

1 pt per reception (new rule this year)

Starting positions: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE

Before you get into whom and where you are going to draft, you need an overall round-by-round strategy. In this draft, I am at the 7 position in a 12 team league. Let me say, right off the bat, I have had the most success in drafting in high positions. For example, my last two championships have come from the top of the draft (position #1 to be precise). Also, it should be said that drafting in the middle is the worst spot to be in. Let me explain. If you draft in the top 3, you have a legitimate shot at a stud RB, solid #2 RB, and a stud WR. For example, you draft someone like Shaun Alexander, then a Brian Westbrook (or comparable) at the 20-24 position, and a Chad Johnson at the 25-28 spot. Therefore, drafting at the top sets up your first 3 picks. Think about it, you get Tomlinson/Alexander/Holmes, then a solid #2 RB (the next 4-20 RBs are all about the same), then a tier 1 WR like Chad Johnson.

Again, for me, I’m at picks 7, 18, and 31, etc. So the plan for me is to draft 2 RBs with picks 7 and 18, then a WR with 31. The plan may change in round 3 due to a lack of stud WRs, but solid is good. Above anything else, I want to be in control of my draft and not reactive. Let’s break it down:

Round 1, pick 7: I am going to get a few sighs on this one, but I will pick Kevin Jones (DET). Why? My requirements are that the RB must be 27 years old or younger and be without injury risk. That should eliminate most of the “names” available at this position. My first inclination is to go with Domanick Davis because of the 1pt per reception rule, but Jones is who I want on my team and he’ll be gone by 18. It’s a little early to pick him in this spot, however, my goal, as you remember, is to not let other owners dictate my draft.

What Happened: Obviously, I got him. All the usual suspects were drafted ahead of me, including Peyton Manning just before me

Round 2, Pick 18: Here I am going to select Brian Westbrook (PHI). If he is not there, then, a Tiki Barber or someone. Basically, I’ll be looking to add a pass catching back to make up for Kevin Jones.
What Happened: Here, some turmoil begins with Westbrook taken at #14. I do not follow my plan to take Barber, because I just have a bad feeling – So, I choose Ahman Green (GB). I didn’t get a pass catching RB, so I do not feel to well about the pick.

Round 3, Pick 31: I want Chad Johnson here, but he won’t fall to me. If he does, shame on my fellow owners. If a stud WR is not available and Manning/Culpepper/McNabb is there, I will pick a QB. If no stud WR/QB available, I will pick TE Antonio Gates (SD). If none of the above is available, then I’ll bite the bullet and pick a solid WR like Andre Johnson or Steve Smith. However, if I select Smith, the draft is not going well for me, to this point.
What Happened: The way the draft was going, it looked like a tier 1 WR was going to fall to my pick. However, Javon Walker and Chad Johnson go at #28 and #29, respectively and the top 3 QBs are gone. This leaves me with my option to take Antonio Gates, however, I feel that a WR run may occur leaving me with a less than capable starter in round 4, so I bite the bullet and pick Andre Johnson (HOU).

Round 4, pick 42: I will again go for a WR so that I have 2 RBs and 2 WRs after 4 rounds. Again, if I picked a TE or QB, this is a must pick for a WR or the wheels have fallen off. Steve Smith is the guy to pick here. Again, if I picked him in the 3rd round, I’m in real trouble.
What Happened: Steve Smith and Roy Williams are taken at #40, but I still want the 2nd WR in this round. Combine that with both tier 1 TEs off the board, I take Anqon Boldon (ARI). I’m a little unhappy at this point of the draft because I didn’t get who I wanted at WR, but I, at least stayed the course.

Round 5, pick 55: Interestingly enough, this is a wildcard round. If I don’t have a QB and a run is about to occur, now would be the time. However, I’m going to look at RB here to protect my 1st and 2nd pick. If Carnell Williams (TB), Cedric Benson (CHI), or Ronnie Brown (MIA) has fallen to my pick here, I will be selecting him. If there is nothing available at RB, I will select a QB like Michael Vick, although I want to wait for the 6th round.
What Happened: I was thinking about taking Vick in this draft, maybe even with this pick. However, he went early in the 3rd round in my opinion. Again, I stay to plan and choose Carnell Williams.

Round 6, pick 66: At this point, I hope to have 3 RBs and 2 WRs. This is where I want a QB. I will select Carson Palmer (CIN) here, unless Vick is still there. Although he’s had a dismal pre-season, I’m real high on this guy. If I picked Michael Vick in the 5th round, I will select the top TE on the board.
What Happened: Even though I considered myself weak at WR, there just wasn’t anything of value at WR. In addition, I think Carson Palmer’s pre-season poor performance will allow me to select him later than anticipated. So I follow the plan and take the best TE on the board – Jeremy Shockey. I’m ok with this but will need to protect him later due to injury risk.

Round 7, pick 79: If at this point, I have 1QB, 3 RBs, 2 WRs, then my draft is working to plan. Here I would select the best TE on the board, but I expect them all to be there in round 8. If the Baltimore defense is available, I will select them without a second thought. This is a defense that should be even better than years previous. If they are already off the board, then I’ll pick a backup QB if I selected Vick in the 5th round.
What Happened: I was right on Palmer falling, so I choose him as my starting QB. My flaw will be backing him up with value.

Round 8, pick 90: Finally, I’ll select TE Dallas Clark (IND) as my TE or backup at one of the other positions.
What Happened: Got the TE in round 6. I should select a WR because I feel very weak, at this point of the draft; however, some upside RBs are still available. I choose Ronnie Brown with this pick.

If my draft has gone to plan at this point, barring injury, I’ve got a top team for 2005. Here is what I expect to have as my starting lineup:

QB Michael Vick/Carson Palmer

RB Kevin Jones

RB Brian Westbrook

WR Chad Johnson/Javon Walker

WR Steve Smith

TE Dallas Clark

DT Baltimore

Take this for what it’s worth. You may be selecting in different positions, but you still want to basically target RBs in the first 2 rounds, then WRs, and a QB. Good luck to me and, of course, you.

Actual Starting Lineup:

QB Carson Palmer

RB Kevin Jones

RB Ahman Green

WR Andre Johnson

WR Anquan Boldin

TE Jeremy Shockey

DT Atlanta

PK Jeff Wilkens

What Happened: As you can see, I did stick with the plan, but wasn’t high on the Boldin pick. Also, I didn’t want to take Green as my #2 RB. In retrospect, I should have stuck to the plan fully and selected Tiki Barber because of the 1pt per catch rule. Additionally, I would have liked to get additional WR help because I’m real unsure on Boldin. As it turned out, I didn’t select my 3rd WR until the 13th round (Travis Taylor). On the bright side, I did get plenty of upside RBs in Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, and even Cedric Benson. I also got Dallas Clark in the 10th round. Overall, nice draft but I do not think it is a championship roster.

Flaw #1: If Carson Palmer is a dud, I have Chad Pennington

Flaw #2: No WR Depth.

I will try to correct this in draft 2 and 3 this week. I will post follow-ups on those drafts, as well.

13 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dope!

8/29/2005 03:50:00 PM  
Blogger Zeus said...

Steve Smith was the guy to take. I almost took him at 33, b/c I had a gut feeling you wanted him with your 4th round pick. Hoping against hope that you would bypass him, I let him slide to me in the 4th round. when he was there at 40, I thought it was my best pick of the day. Unfortunately, you stole K. Jones at 7 and threw off my whole draft. Time will tell, but my team stinks!

8/29/2005 06:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Hermes said...

Here's your 2005 Predictions:

Regular Season –

Torn ACL Division:
Mazza

Turf Toe Division:
Bar None
Bonecrushers

Pulled Hamstring Division:
Killer Z’s

Concussion Division:
Sawed Off’s
Damage, Inc.


Postseason –

1st Round:
Damage vs. Mazza
Bonecrushers vs. Bar None

2nd Round:
Damage vs. Killer Z’s
Boncrushers vs. Sawed Off’s

Z-Bowl:
Killer Z’s vs. Sawed Off’s

Winner:
Sawed Off’s

8/30/2005 03:55:00 PM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Rankings said...

Hey Glacies - got lost looking for Fantasy Football Player Rankings info but found your great blog! Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 is not exactly Fantasy Football Player Rankings related, but I still gave it a good look and will come back.. Thanks.

12/13/2005 03:29:00 AM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Draft said...

Hi Glacies - I was out searching for Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets related sites and stumbled across your blog. Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 is not exactly what I was looking for, but I still stayed and sniffed around a bit! Nice site! I am off to find Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets related stuff, but I will stop by again soon! Keep up the good work!

12/13/2005 05:02:00 PM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Rankings said...

Dear Glacies --- Nice blog! I was looking for Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets related info, but stopped for a minute when I found you blog! It is great! I am book-marking it and will come back! I haven't seem a blog quite like Diary of a Madman: Draft #1! Anyway great blog, but no Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets info here I I am out! THanks...

12/14/2005 04:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Rankings said...

Dear Glacies --- Nice blog! I was looking for Fantasy Football Draft related info, but stopped for a minute when I found you blog! It is great! I am book-marking it and will come back! I haven't seem a blog quite like Diary of a Madman: Draft #1! Anyway great blog, but no Fantasy Football Draft info here I I am out! THanks...

12/20/2005 01:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Player Rankings said...

Hi there Glacies, nice blog here! I am looking for Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets blogs, but yours stood out to me despite really having nothing to do with Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets stuff. Seems like a lot of people enjoy your Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 blog and I will bookmark you! Thanks...

12/29/2005 06:17:00 PM  
Anonymous Fantasy Football Rankings said...

Glacies - nice blog. I was looking for Fantasy Football Rankings sites, but I am glad I found your Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 blog, because it is quite entertaining! I will come back and check it out! Off to find more Fantasy Football Rankings blogs/sites... see ya and thanks!

1/03/2006 03:08:00 PM  
Blogger FantasyFootballHelpers.com said...

Dear Blogger --- Nice blog! I was looking for Fantasy Football Mock Draft related info, but stopped for a minute when I found you blog! It is great! I am book-marking it and will come back! I haven't seem a blog quite like Diary of a Madman: Draft #1! Anyway great blog, but no Fantasy Football Mock Draft info here; I am out! Thanks...

1/09/2006 04:52:00 PM  
Blogger FFH said...

Dear Glacies --- Nice blog! I was looking for Fantasy Football related info, but stopped for a minute when I found you blog! It is great! I am book-marking it and will come back! I haven't seem a blog quite like Diary of a Madman: Draft #1! Anyway great blog, but no Fantasy Football info here; I am out! Thanks...

1/13/2006 02:13:00 PM  
Blogger FFH said...

Hi Glacies - I was out searching for Fantasy Football related sites and stumbled across your blog. Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 is not exactly what I was looking for, but I still stayed and sniffed around a bit! Nice site! I am off to find Fantasy Football related stuff, but I will stop by again soon! Keep up the good work!

1/17/2006 08:56:00 PM  
Blogger FFH said...

Glacies - nice blog. I was looking for Fantasy Football Draft sites, but I am glad I found your Diary of a Madman: Draft #1 blog, because it is quite entertaining! I will come back and check it out! Off to find more Fantasy Football Draft blogs/sites... see ya and thanks!

1/19/2006 02:41:00 PM  

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